Who has the edge? Making the case for the Ningbo semifinalists
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The final four is set in Ningbo.
A surging Leylah Fernandez, playing some of her best tennis of the season over the past month, will take on Marie Bouzkova in the first semifinal.
In the second, top seed and defending champion Elena Rybakina will play Diana Shnaider, in pursuit of her first WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz title of the year.
We make the case for the semifinalists ahead of their matches on Saturday.
After a season-long race, the world's top players converge in the California desert with the WTA's biggest title still to be won.
Shnaider was at her best against Iva Jovic on Friday, employing the perfect blend of touch and power in the 6-3, 4-6, 6-1 win. After Jovic leveled the match, Shnaider rebounded with conviction in the decider, winning 79 percent of her first-serve points and never facing a break point. The World No. 13, who defeated Yulia Putintseva and Alexandra Eala in her first two matches this week, continues her stretch of excellent tennis in Ningbo. She reached the final in her debut in 2023 and made the semis last year, and is now 10-3 at this tournament.
This will be her fourth semifinal of 2026, after reaching the final four in Adelaide, Roland Garros and Washington, D.C.
She'll play World No. 1 Rybakina, who beat qualifier Katarzyna Kawa 6-1, 3-6, 6-1. That was Rybakina's first completed match of the week, as she received a first-round bye and then advanced when Polina Kudermetova retired trailing 5-0 in the first set. Rybakina's serve was her biggest weapon against Kawa; she hit eight aces and won 81 percent of her first-serve points. And she punished Kawa's serve, creating 17 break points and converting six of them.
Shnaider and Rybakina have met twice before, both times this year. They first played on clay, in Stuttgart, a 6-3, 6-4 win for Rybakina. Rybakina jumped out to a fast lead in that match, taking 17 of the first 22 points and closing it out in just 1 hour and 12 minutes.
Rybakina and Shnaider played again in August, this time on hard courts in Cincinnati, and Rybakina got the win 6-4, 6-4.
Fernandez is into her second semifinal of 2026 after beating Ekaterina Alexandrova 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 on Friday, her second win against Alexandrova in as many weeks. The World No. 30 was effective on her return, converting four of nine break-point opportunities.
Fernandez has now won three consecutive three-setters in Ningbo, following wins over seventh-seeded Elise Mertens and Aliaksandra Sasnovich, and has spent just under eight hours on court. The first-round win over Mertens was especially taxing, as Fernandez rallied from 5-3 down in the decider to win.
Fernandez kicked off her Asian Swing with her first title of the year in Singapore, and she's now won 10 of her last 12 matches since the US Open. Six of her last seven matches have gone to deciders.
Bouzkova's path to the semis has been much more straightforward, with straight-set wins over Kamilla Rakhimova, Anastasia Zakharova and countrywoman Sara Bejlek. Bouzkova was initially slated to play Iga Swiatek in the second round, but caught a break when Swiatek opted to pull out of the tournament before their match.
The win over Bejlek sent Bouzkova into her third semifinal of 2026, and first at the WTA 500 level or higher since last August. Bouzkova has a good track record in semifinals this year, winning titles both times when she's gotten to this stage in a tournament.
These two have played once before, but it was way back in 2019. Bouzkova dominated that match 6-0, 6-1 in Toronto.